Marijuana reform advocates and businesses have grown fond over the past decade of the phrase “the toothpaste is out of the tube,” and the “genie is out of the bottle” when referring to the global surge of the cannabis trade, which has touched every continent.
Which makes it that much harder to remember – even when faced with stark political realities – that reform is not inevitable. Rather, it must be fought for and won.
That simple truth has perhaps never been more prescient than right now, heading into a second Donald Trump administration – with top federal law enforcement officials that are either openly hostile towards marijuana reform, or simply agnostic – and it’s underscored by a renewed attempt by cannabis prohibitionists at the state level who continue trying to roll back the gains made by the legalization movement.
The Virginia recreational marijuana market has been stalled for years due to Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s opposition to legalization – with a renewed veto threat issued by his office this month in response to a Democratic attempt to get the market operational.
Marijuana opponents in Colorado have filed a bill to roll back the state’s social equity program, prohibit adults under the age of 26 from purchasing certain cannabis products, and add further warning label requirements. The measure, Senate Bill 76, would also prevent the state’s new psychedelics industry from selling psilocybin extracts and edibles.
Adding to that attempts at the ballot box in November to legalize recreational or expand medical cannabis operations failed in Arkansas, Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The only state that legalized medical marijuana last fall was Nebraska, where two ballot questions designed to set up a program are facing dual lawsuits from a former state senator, making it uncertain as to when or if a new industry will materialize.
Then there are the myriad legal battles going on in states across the country over intoxicating hemp products. Several states have passed bans on such goods, while others are actively contemplating similar moves. That has inevitably led to court fights from hemp companies, who argue that they comply with the 2018 Farm Bill, which legalized hemp nationwide, giving them the right to ship across state lines, a huge advantage over the state-siloed marijuana markets.
These are all further obstacles to progress, and it’s against the backdrop of an investor base that has largely retreated from the industry over the past few years, leaving plenty of operators starved for cash, including many who are still trying to get started after winning licenses.
That’s not to suggest that reform has stalled completely; insiders are optimistic about the chances of new markets opening in states such as Pennsylvania and Hawaii this year, along with the upcoming medical markets in Kentucky and Alabama, and ongoing growth of some newer markets, such as New York.
But at the same time, hope from the past few years that federal marijuana rescheduling would at least lead to a financial boom through tax savings is beginning to dim, given the anti-cannabis positions taken by new key Trump appointees such as incoming Attorney General Pam Bondi and Acting Drug Enforcement Administration chief Derek Maltz. It’s far from clear now whether rescheduling will proceed at all, and if it does, it won’t be for another three months at a minimum.
The same is likely true for legislation such as the SAFE Banking Act and other shelved cannabis proposals in Congress, given that marijuana reform has never been a top priority for the GOP or Trump.
What does that mean for the industry? It’s hard to tell yet, but the only thing that’s a safe bet is for companies and activists to continue focusing on state-level operations and possible reforms that could help sustain the national industry, particularly while many businesses are struggling to stay afloat amid widespread price compression, market contraction and ever-burdensome tax obligations.
State-level and even municipal politics have thus far been the single most important vehicle for change concerning cannabis policy for almost 30 years, a truth that goes back to the first legalization victory when California voters approved Proposition 215 in 1996. It’s probably that avenue where the industry will find relief, or at least enough help to sustain it, for several more years until federal legalization somehow is achieved.
John Schroyer has been a reporter since 2006, initially with a focus on politics, and covered the 2012 Colorado campaign to legalize marijuana. He has written about the cannabis industry specifically since 2014, after being on hand for the first-ever legal cannabis sales on New Year’s Day that year in Denver. John has covered subsequent marijuana market launches in California and Illinois, has written about every aspect of the marijuana trade, and was part of the team that built the cannabis industry’s first-ever trade show, MJBizCon. He joined Green Market Report in 2022.
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The Green Market Report focuses on the financial news of the rapidly growing cannabis industry. Our target approach filters out the daily noise and does a deep dive into the financial, business and economic side of the cannabis industry. Our team is cultivating the industry’s critical news into one source and providing open source insights and data analysis
Crain Communications Inc © 2017 – . All rights reserved.
Crain Communications Inc © 2017 – . All rights reserved.